Chisels: Worth it or not?

From our last post about the new patch, we found that on average 1% quantity increases the number of maps by 1.006 times. This means that 1 chisel will increase the average number of maps by only 3%. So, are they worth it or not? Well, it’s highly dependent the expected number of drops from your map. So, let’s walk you through it:

First, use this formula:

ExpectedDrops = exp{1.89 – 0.024*Level + 0.0060*Quantity}

to find the expected number of drops from your current map. Now, multiply this value by 0.03, let’s call that ExpectedIncrease. Finally, assume the level of the map dropped is equal to the level of the map you are running. Now, is the ExpectedIncrease * Value of Expected Map better than the value of a chisel? If yes, then go for it! Chisel as much as you can! If not, then run as is.

Example:

Consider a Level 78 Map with 64% Quantity.  Then,  our ExpectedDrops = 1.49. Now, ExpectedIncrease = 1.49*0.03 = 0.0447. If we expect to get a level 78 map from this and we value it at 8 chaos, then a chisel would have to be worth less than 0.36 chaos for it to be worth it.

Second Example: White Map

Consider now you have a white level 78 map, with no Quality.  In this case, our ExpectedDrops = 1.018, ExpectedIncrease this time is fairly higher, 1.018*(0.03*20) = 0.6108. Now, if we go and roll this map, and assuming again that a 78 will drop and is valued at 8 chaos, then the chisel must be worth less than 4.8 (20%) / 4 (4 chisels used) =  1.22 chaos, which is far, far more likely.

As you can see, most likely, chiseling non-white maps will not be worth your time. For white maps, it’s worth doing if you can push the expected drop value high enough. It’s a tricky balance: since you must chisel before you know the mods you’ll have on the map, you risk having to spend chaos to reroll a map which doesn’t have the proper mods to make the chisels worth it. This means that chiseling, for the most part, is only worth it if the map level is already high enough such that the expected drop is worth the chisels, ignoring mods. At this point in Ambush, that’s probably not until level 76.

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